Just when you thought it was safe to travel for the holidays, the world has been roiled once again by a coronavirus variant dubbed Omicron. International travel has been shut down, and economies reliant on tourism are on the brink.
Tourism appeared to be on the rebound in the fourth quarter of 2021 as people made plans for holiday travel abroad. That optimism has been dashed by the emergence of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus discovered by scientists in South Africa on November 26, prompting countries around the world to shut their borders again to try to prevent the spread of the new variant.
Countries took different approaches. Israel was the first to close its borders completely. Morocco followed suit, shutting down all incoming international travel initially for two weeks, and then extending the closure until December 31. The US, the European Union countries, the United Kingdom and many other countries shut down all travel to and from various countries, mostly in southern Africa.
Yet, more than a dozen European and Asian countries had already reported cases of the Omicron variant, and as of December 9, it had been detected in at least 20 states in the US.
The economic impact of the travel bans and border closures is likely to be devastating. Before Omicron arrived on the scene, the losses of the tourism industry globally were already estimated at $1.6 trillion for 2021.
The impact of Omicron is expected to make those losses worse. The travel bans imposed by the EU, UK, and the US have cut off South Africa’s three biggest foreign markets, just at a time of the season when many holiday goers are seeking sun and warmth in this southernmost African country.
Likewise, Morocco’s heavily tourism-based economy, still reeling from drastically curtailed tourism during 2019 and only slightly rebounding in 2020, is expected to be impacted by significant losses during the holiday season, especially in Marrakech and Agadir, two popular international tourism destinations. Bookings were only just beginning to come back, according to tour operators.
The abruptness of the travel bans has also left many travelers stranded. And some countries have reinstated emergency repatriation flights for foreign nationals.
So far, the effects on travel demand have largely depended on the destination. While the Delta variant had already caused a decrease in international travel, it has taken a further dive since the advent of Omicron.
In contrast, in the US at least, domestic travel appears to be on the rise, with many travelers surveyed saying they are not changing their travel plans for the holidays. Indeed, in popular winter tourism destinations like Miami, Florida, many hotels and Airbnb rentals are fully booked.
In Morocco, however, many riads and hotels are standing empty, their winter bookings canceled, and domestic tourism is unlikely to fill the void.
Will tourism rebound in 2022? The answer is unclear. While rapid transmissibility of Omicron was the primary factor that sparked public health officials’ recent rapid travel bans around the world, there are still a lot of unknowns about the Omicron variant. Scientists do not yet know if it causes more severe cases of COVID-19 or whether it is resistant to the vaccines on the market.
Also, given the low levels of vaccination both in the US and many other countries, the virus is likely to continue to mutate even further into more variants. That’s what unchecked viruses do.
The World Health Organization (WHO), recognizing that travel and vaccination levels are closely connected, estimates that there is still a high likelihood that Omicron will spread globally, but it has advocated keeping borders open.
The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) likewise opposes blanket restrictions on travel and, instead, recommends “balancing public health concerns with keeping the lifeline of tourism intact.”
While the outlook for tourism in 2022 remains uncertain, in the meantime, the US has implemented more stringent travel requirements effective December 6 for all travelers coming into the US whether US nationals or not, and regardless of vaccination status, including a negative PCR test taken within one day of departure.
