The answer to the question of who will be the Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates has become a puzzle, since Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan officially assumed the presidency on May 14, 2022, following the death of his brother Khalifa bin Zayed.
The fate of the position of the crown prince is currently dispersed between the ruling families of the seven emirates that make up the federation on the one hand, and the members of the ruling Al Nahyan family in Abu Dhabi, represented by the brothers and son of the current president on the other hand.
Mohammed bin Zayed spent 9 months as the head of the state after the rulers of the seven emirates elected him president of the federation in accordance with the UAE constitution, and before that he became the seventeenth ruler of the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, but in practice, he was the de facto ruler of the Emirates since 2014, after his brother Khalifa bin Zayed suffered a stroke which made him rarely appear and unable to carry out his duties, until he passed away on May 13, 2022.
And throughout the period preceding his official rule, Mohammed bin Zayed had held the title of Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi since November 2, 2004, and in this capacity, he was the de facto ruler of the country, and it was clear that he would be head of state with the blessing of the rulers of the rest of the emirates because he heads the largest emirate in the country and rich in oil and natural gas reserves. This is what actually happened last year, to be the third president of the UAE, and the third member of the Al Nahyan family in this position, after his father, Sheikh Zayed, and his brother, Sheikh Khalifa.
But the matter is no more than a custom followed by the rulers of the seven emirates, as nothing in the UAE constitution gives this role exclusively to Al Nahyan, which raises question marks about the identity of the person who will succeed Mohammed bin Zayed, who will complete his sixty-second year on March 11. He is the one who bears the task of choosing his successor, not only from among the ruling families but also from the family to which he belongs.
The task does not seem easy for Mohammed bin Zayed, as he faces 6 families that rule the other emirates of the country with autonomy. The matter is related to Sharjah, Ajman, Umm Al Quwain, Ras Al Khaimah, Fujairah, and then Dubai, the latter being ruled by Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the second most important person in the Emirates now, as he is the Vice President, Prime Minister and Minister of Defense.
The 74-year-old Mohammed bin Rashid rules the world's most famous emirate and the emirate that has the largest population in the whole country. According to the official portal of the UAE government, 3.35 million people live in Dubai, out of about 10 million people who are the total population of the country.
The gross domestic product of this emirate in the first half of the year 2022 amounted to more than 208 billion dirhams, while the GDP of the rest of the country during the same period was 817 billion dirhams.
However, a recent report issued by the British newspaper The Economist underestimates the influence of the Al Maktoum family in the race to obtain the position of the crown prince, given that since 2009, Dubai has lost its independence in favor of Abu Dhabi, due to the financial crisis that hit its economy, as it needed a bailout package from the latter is worth $ 10 billion, and as a kind of recognition, Dubai named its famous tower after Khalifa when it was opened in 2010.
In light of the decline in the power of Dubai and the limited influence of the ruling families in the rest of the emirates, the real competition for the position of the crown prince appears to be confined within the Al Nahyan family, specifically between brothers of the current president, and his eldest son, Khalid bin Mohammed bin Zayed, who is 41 years old. Khalid bin Mohammed was head of the State Security Agency with the rank of minister, then he was appointed National Security Adviser with the rank of minister in 2017. He is also the head of the Abu Dhabi Executive Council.
Khalid bin Mohammed has a competition with 14 uncles who are still alive, led by Mansour bin Zayed, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Presidential Affairs, who himself is the owner of the English club Manchester City, and Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, National Security Adviser since 2013, who chairs the board of directors of the International Holding Company (IHC), and holds intelligence work in his hands, then Abdullah bin Zayed, Minister of Foreign Affairs since 2006 and Chairman of the National Media Council.
Mohamed bin Zayed does not want memories of strife over the emirate’s seat to return again, similar to what happened a century ago when brothers killed each other to reach the rule of Abu Dhabi, nor does he want to clash with the ruling families in the rest of the emirates, which do not necessarily share his political decisions, such as the war in Yemen, the normalization of relations with Israel, and hostility to the Islamists, similar to what was the case with the Al Qasimi family, the rulers of the Emirate of Ras Al Khaimah, which embraces a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, or he does not share their tendencies, such as his rejection of the existing relations between the Emirate of Dubai and Iran.
