Morocco's budget deficit is expected to reach 3.8% of GDP in 2025, down from 4% of GDP in 2024, according to the High Planning Commission (HCP).
These forecasts take into account the development of investment expenditure, which is expected to reach 6.5% of GDP, HCP pointed out in its recently published 2025 Exploratory Economic Budget, noting that fiscal policy in 2025 will be marked by the maintenance of public investment effort as well as the ongoing partial and gradual decompensation of butane gas, which began in May 2024.
The implementation of the measures taken as part of the social dialogue, with the second phase of salary increases scheduled for 2025, should increase staff expenditure up to 10.3% of GDP, according to the same source.
In the same vein, the ratio of ordinary expenditure to GDP should fall from 20% in 2024 to 19.5%, benefiting from the fall in the ratio of compensation expenditure in 2025, which should be close to 0.7% of GDP after an average of 1.8% between 2014 and 2023.
Ordinary income is expected to stabilise at around 22% of GDP, benefiting from the expected increase in tax revenue due to the continued favorable trend in direct and indirect taxes in 2025.
Supported by receipts from innovative financing mechanisms, non-tax receipts are expected to increase to 3.7% of GDP.
In terms of debt, the Treasury's debt ratio will be reduced to around 70.1% of GDP.
Taking into account a decline in the ratio of state-guaranteed foreign debt, from 12.8% of GDP expected in 2024 to 12.3% in 2025, the overall public debt ratio is expected to fall to about 82.4% of GDP, instead of 83.1% forecast in 2024.
