Algeria is one of the world's largest exporters of oil and gas, and its international influence in this sector has increased since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war and the imposition of Western sanctions on Moscow's energy exports. This has made Algeria one of the biggest beneficiaries as Europe looks to replace Russian energy supplies with those from other countries.
According to a report by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), Algeria's gas exports to European Union countries, particularly France, saw a significant increase in 2023. Algeria's share of Europe's total gas imports reached 19% last year.
The report highlights that France is one of the most prominent EU countries importing Algerian gas, making gas a "trump card" for Algeria in its relations with Paris. This has led many observers of French-Algerian relations to question whether Algeria might use this leverage to pressure France into reconsidering its support for Morocco's sovereignty over Sahara, especially in light of the recent diplomatic crisis between the two countries and Algeria's decision to withdraw its ambassador from Paris.
In this context, economist Dr. Omar Kettani told Assahifa that it is unlikely Algeria would take "punitive" measures against France in the economic sphere or cut off gas supplies to France for several reasons, primarily due to the complex historical and economic ties between France and its former colony.
Kettani added that the Algerian economy is "not strong on a global level," and it is in Algeria's interest to continue its gas exports to France, as gas is a crucial component of the country's economy. He believes that Algeria's threats of taking countermeasures against Paris are "mere threats."
The economist also pointed out that other factors make it unlikely for Algeria to use its gas leverage against France, notably the interdependence of Algeria's economy with that of France and Europe in general. According to Kettani, Algeria does not have strong economic partnerships with other countries, such as Russia, China, or Turkey, to replace its relations with Europe.
Furthermore, France, according to the same source, seems to have learned from the "Spanish scenario" and assessed the potential damage when relations with Algeria deteriorate. Based on this assessment, France decided to support Morocco's claim over the Sahara, understanding that Algeria's anger would not have a "significant impact."
Reports in the same context have stated that Algeria cannot use the gas card to pressure France because such a move would have negative economic consequences for Algeria itself. It would also damage its reputation as a reliable partner for the entire European Union, something Algeria does not want.
It is also worth noting that when Algeria's relations with Spain deteriorated in 2022 due to Madrid's support for Morocco's sovereignty over Sahara through backing the autonomy plan, Algeria did not cut off gas supplies to Spain. Therefore, a similar outcome is expected with France now.
